Don't Bet Against Him

My man Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com fame has put his unmatched predicting reputation on the line and is forecasting this Sundays Oscars. If you saw his projections for the election (he had Obama smashing McCain in June) then you know not to take this lightly.

A sample:

Lead Actor
Mickey Rourke.........................71.1%
Sean Penn.................................19.0%
Brad Pitt.....................................5.9%
Frank Langella..........................3.4%
Richard Jenkins........................0.5%

Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke have split the two awards that traditionally predict success in this category, with Penn winning Screen Actors Guild and Rourke the Golden Globe. But Rourke has an additional advantage: If an actor, like Penn, has been nominated several times without nabbing a statue, his odds of winning increase. Once he does win, odds go way down. Penn won Best Actor five years ago for Mystic River.